Thursday, July 11, 2013

The Moving Company, and other Alpha Male alliances

Last week MC (The Moving Company) seemed to be running the house. They looked like an unstoppable force. This week, they look vulnerable. They look like an unstable alliance that is in danger of losing its first member in just the second eviction of the season. What changed? To answer that, let's start with a little Big Brother history lesson.

MC was not the first Alpha Male alliance to form in the house. The first came courtesy of Big Brother 5, they were known as The Four Horsemen. They formed the exact same way most early alliances form. Somebody won HoH, and people rallied around him to form an alliance, assuming they would always run the house. The four horsemen were super athletes/ultra competitors Jase and Scott, the oddball Michael (Aka Cowboy) and Drew. Drew was the least interesting Horseman personality wise, but was the key piece in the fate of the alliance. In week one, Jase won HoH and Scott won veto. These two thought they were in charge of the house, and they acted like it. Then something came between the ultimate bromance, females. Jase fell for Holly, who nobody in the house could stand, and Drew formed a showmance with Dianne, who was at the time Jase's arch nemesis. Week 3, Drew wins HoH, sends Holly out the door, further alienating Jase from him, and the rest of the house. Week 4, Dianne takes out Scott. Week 5, the infamous six finger plan, the very first backdoor. Drew teamed up with Dianne and her allies to send Jase out without a chance to compete for veto. Showing that good strategic play can beat competition proficiency every time. While Drew and Michael went on to be the final two, it's hard to argue that The Four Horsemen alliance was still intact beyond week 5.

To find the second alpha male alliance we have to go all the way to season 12. Hayden wins the first HoH, Enzo goes to him with a plan to bring together an alliance of four strong men who have different skills, and can run the house. Hayden, Enzo, Matt, and Lane form The Brigade, and each of them form sub alliances. While people suspected they were working together, everybody thought that they were in a more important alliance with them. Ragan believed Matt was loyal to him, Britney believed Lane was loyal to her, Kirsten believed Hayden was loyal to her, and everybody thought Enzo was just a goofy guy who was getting through. With everyone feeling secure, the whole season became about the house trying to evict Brendan and Rachel, while the Brigade quietly controlled every eviction. The only member to leave early was Matt, and that was still done by the Brigade who no longer felt they could trust him. They dominated that season.

So where does MC fit in? Are they The Horsemen or The Brigade? Last week they looked like Brigade, but now they are shaping up for a Horsemen like collapse. They are allowing love interests and egos to get in the way of their alliance. Jeremy is pulling rank and alienating his allies, in a way that is reminiscent of Jase's fall, and now, after proving to have the worst poker face in the world, Nick is in danger.

If MC wants to regain control of the house they need to continue branching out. They need make sure that they can't be seen conspiring together. They need to remember that winning is not about taking all of the competitions, it's about keeping people around that you control. They made this mistake when they evicted David over Elissa. Yes, David is more likely to win HoH, but he would have been a loyal soldier. Elissa has no reason to stay loyal, and she has a lot of power.

Tonight eviction will come down to Elissa or Nick. Nobody will vote for Helen. There are 11 votes, meaning you need six to stay. They have four guaranteed in the alliance, and GinaMarie.  If they can pull in one more vote, likely Katilin, they are gold. However, I expect to see Candice fighting to pull the veil off of more peoples eyes. How MC handles this eviction could decide if they will be The Horsemen, or The Bridage.

Tim

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